On 23 November 2021, the Federal Government of Somalia declared a state of emergency due to drought. In order to support operational planning, DTM Somalia has conducted an analysis of previous drought-related data from 2017 to better understand potential hotspots for displacement and projections of internal displacement movements in the next six months. DTM Somalia has produced projections for two scenarios based on the current drought severity:
• Scenario 1 estimates that 1,415,000 people may be displaced by drought in the coming 6 months
• Scenario 2 estimates that 1,036,000 may be displaced by drought in the coming 6 months
The methodology relies on FAO SWALIM drought severity maps and DTM Somalia ETT and Baseline two data.
Analysis into the following key regions has been conducted to provide an overview of displacement patterns and rural settlements proximity to urban settlements: BAY, BANADIR, GEDO, HIRAAN, BARI, NUGAAL, MUDUG, GALGADUUG, LOWER JUBA, LOWER SHABELLE.